A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
