🔗 Share this article

Just two months ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as his coach berated him over not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his displays were an indicator or the reason for the team's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. As the in-form star drilled in his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Is This Team Genuine Hopefuls?

That’s an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. History, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the wins have piled up.

Per the data, in only two games has the side posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a team that have strung together 10 in a row, they look weirdly vulnerable – but currently the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

The current approach seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more against the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, arced just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.

• The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
• The winger could transform into the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.

This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine Rogers now would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital player for the national team.

The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.